The Binding Of Isaac Chaos
This is a general guide for when you should take Chaos in the Binding of Isaac: Afterbirth. I’ve seen a lot of discussion as to whether Chaos is a good item, and — with the help of some people who have done a lot of great work in determining the probabilities of a few occurrences in Isaac — this guide should help make a few Chaos decisions clearer.Before we start, here are a few assumptions I’ll be making:. Your shop is upgraded to max level.
This means that you’ll be getting 1-2 items per shop. You’ve unlocked every item in the game. (This is admittedly not an assumption that will apply to most people, but for the purposes of making the math easier we’ll make it anyway.). Crack train controller 7 gold price. From floor 2 to floor 8, you don’t take any red heart damage until the boss is defeated. (This is also not always a fair assumption to make, but — again — it makes this guide easier.). You don’t run into an angel room on the run. This is not always something that will happen — Krampus or no items on Floor 2 are all too common — but it will simplify things for the time being.
All items are equally weighted with Chaos. Nahhh, this communities gotten so up in arms and shitty about needing things to go exactly there way and not be a challenge that they act like anything that might make their run a SLIGHT bit difficult is a bad thing.
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To the point where they just straight up decide to ignore a part of the game JUST because the chance that it could give them positive outcomes isn't as good as it giving them a negative or neutral one. The communities full of whiny children that obsessively consider anything that has a remotely negative effect to be the worst thing ever and it's annoying as fuck. As the Wiki said Chaos makes the game chose an Item Pool randomly uniformly when generating an Item.Thus, you need to look at the amount of Item Pools first, not their size.You have 14 Item Pools in Afterbirth. So if you want an Item purely from Devil Room, that's a 1/14 chance.But certain Devil Room Items are also in Treasure Room Pool, Red Chest Pool, Devil Beggar Pool, Golden Chest Pool.Thus, you need to look at the amount of Devil Room Items on every Pool, divide by the amount of Items of the Pool, sum all the ratios, then divide by 14, if you want to have an estimate of your chances to get a Devil Room Item with Chaos. Yes, this is interesting.
Many people - myself included - consider Chaos to be 'A guaranteed Guppy'.I feel that this means one of the initial assumptions made by OP is wrong. Blender 2.8 user preferences. Namely: 'There is an equal chance to get every item'.Another assumption that is wrong is the number of items you'll find on your runs. IMHO, it's extremely common to get at least 3-4 items per run that are not in one of the guaranteed item rooms. I'm talking about 'Golden chests in Super Secret Rooms', 'items in curse rooms', 'items from beggars' and 'items spawned from mushrooms' here.
That skews the odds pretty heavily.(Do the 7 sins always drop the same items, or are they affected by chaos?).Not to mention that 'If you still have the D6, you can reroll every single one of those items, including the extra items, including the fixed drops'. Which means that 'With Isaac, it's worth it pretty much all game'. I don't think this accurately surmises how chaos works. According to the wiki, chaos chooses from a random pool, making the chance of getting an item from the devil room pool 1/14. However, devil room items are also in the curse room, red chest etc.
Pool, making the chances higher.Also, I would say that just plain devil room items are not a particularly sound measure of success on a chaos run; yes, devil rooms are the main source of high damage items in normal play, but this is also because they can spawn 2-3 items per room, mitigating the bad items in the pool, something that chaos does not account for. Rather, consider that shop items have an extremely high chance to be replaced by something better, as well as the possibility of strong but infrequently accessed pools (curse room, angel room) being integrated in the game. I would always pick up an early chaos, unless I had goat head. While an interesting attempt, I think you made a few too many assumptions, and attempted to extrapolate too much from your 'best case scenario' which may not have in fact been best case.For example, let's say you find it on the second floor shop, and purchase it after defeating the boss and getting the devil deal but before opening the item room.
Using your assumptions: 2 devil + 5 item + 6 shop + 3 boss = 16 items which can be affected by chaos, further assuming that Krampus wasn't your devil deal, and you have not yet encountered any of the assumed fixed drop bosses. So that puts remaining devil deals as 1/8 of your items, closer than the previous 1/7, and easier to be affected further. And of course you're not accounting for the occasional double item rooms, while you only get to pick up one item, you still see two, giving you a better chance to pick up a devil item. And you don't account for items in chests, which I'm pretty sure are affected by chaos, though I don't know the odds of a given chest containing an item, nor the needed information to calculate how many chests will appear on average (average number of rooms in a run, chance of a chest dropping which is affected by luck I think and so on). Then of course there's other random sources of items, such as playing beggars, which I think is also chaos affected, or secret rooms, though I think they're pretty rare to have items.And this all of course assumes your basis for how chaos works is accurate, which other comments suggest is doubtful, and that the solitary goal of picking up chaos is more devil items, which I find highly doubtful, in most cases I'd be glad to upgrade a shop item to almost any other item pool, an item room to boss or devil.
Then there's the restock question, what are the odds of finding restock with chaos vs without. Or reroll machine, which I would hazard a guess I see at least one per run, which would allow.